There is now enough data to begin to forecast the economic impact of COVID-19 on the City of Grapevine's revenue. In this analysis we have chosen to focus primarily on the top five industries (at the two-digit NAICS level) which represented 80% of the city's revenues in 2019:
- Retail (3,037 firms, $15,094,291 tax revenue, 6,923 jobs)
- Accommodation and Food Services (281 firms, $9,928,053 tax revenue, 3,706 jobs)
- Wholesale Trade (1,533 firms, $5,600,907 tax revenue, 2,992 jobs)
- Manufacturing (1,323 firms, $2,695,170 tax revenue, 2,301 jobs)
- Information (790 firms, $2,502,896 tax revenue, 918 jobs)
The impact estimates outlined in this dashboard are derived by the recent Deloitte report which points to an 8.3% dip in GDP for 2020. There are bigger impacts realized across different sectors, those most vulnerable to impact for structural reasons, retail and hotels among them. We have attempted to account for this in this analysis.
Looking at the unemployment picture in the State of Texas overall is helpful in understanding how Grapevine may be experiencing its own local effects of this unprecedented health and economic crisis:
Navigating out of this recession is a key focus, and this analysis includes a forecast through 2022 including areas of potential strategic gain as the global economy reorders itself.
Note: job loss estimates are calculated as of April 27, 2020
Grapevine Job Posting Trends for Top 5 IndustriesMarch-April 2019 compared to 2020
The charts below highlight the near-term impact on the top industries as seen through the drop in unique job postings over the past thirty days. The data below reflect the time period of March 25 through April 25, comparing that period in 2019 to 2020.
Grapevine Revenue Forecast2020-2022
Data & MethodologyHow the data in this report was calculated.
Emsi Daily Job Postings